New tropical depression in the Atlantic

The National Hurricane Center said a tropical depression packing 30 miles per hour winds formed in the Atlantic Ocean on Thursday. Its maximum sustained wind speeds were 30 miles per hour and it was moving in a west-northwest direction at about 16 miles per hour.

The latest updated forecast is above the 30-year historical average (1981-2010) for the Atlantic Basin of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

Given the system's speed and trajectory, it could be the middle of next week before any effects are felt along the coast, Johnson said.

None of the reliable computer forecast model runs expected Tropical Depression to last until Monday, according to meteorologist Jeff Masters, of Weather Underground.

The system did not become better organized on Tuesday but conditions still favor the formation of a tropical cyclone, forecasters said.

In April, Tropical Storm Arlene formed in the northern Atlantic near the Azores.

These two factors will continue to limit the organization and eventual intensification of this tropical system as it tracks northwestward, toward the west-central Atlantic Ocean. We'll be watching for any changes to the forecast trend.

By Sunday, a stronger cold front will attempt to push southward into the Gulf region, likely triggering more widespread rain and storms as we move into next week.

Speaking to The Daily News, Klotzbach said the only comparable years in which the university increased its hurricane prediction by four "ended up being very active seasons".

  • Jon Douglas